Foresight scenarios explore and map alternative assumptions about the future, without claiming to predict the most likely course of events. In this sense, foresight begins where forecasting ends. While forecasting relies on past and present data and trend analysis – essentially extrapolating from existing information – foresight aims to imagine multiple plausible futures that can inform more resilient and forward-looking policies. It encourages us to consider surprising developments and to “think about the unthinkable.”
Foresight invites reflection on futures that may not be obvious from today’s data, but whose early signals may already be visible. It deliberately broadens the range of what is considered and how it might matter in the years ahead.
The practice of foresight and scenario planning has its roots in Cold War military strategy, particularly through the work of Herman Kahn at the RAND Corporation in the early 1960s, who advocated for “thinking the unthinkable.” Since then, foresight has evolved into a distinct academic and policy discipline. Although it originated in a military context, it now applies to a wide array of themes and sectors.
One of the most iconic foresight exercises is the “Mont Fleur Scenarios”, developed in 1991–1992 on the eve of South Africa’s democratic transition. Named after the venue outside Cape Town where a diverse group of 22 South Africans – representing opposing political backgrounds – met over three workshops, the process produced four scenarios: Ostrich (continued apartheid), Lame Duck (slow and incomplete transition), Icarus (unsustainable populist economic policies), and Flight of the Flamingos (a sustainable and inclusive transition).
The COVID-19 pandemic further illustrates the value of foresight. By early 2020, many conventional forecasts had become obsolete in the face of an unprecedented global health crisis. While foresight may not have predicted the exact nature of the pandemic, it could have helped develop scenarios anticipating disruptions of this magnitude and guiding responses under conditions of uncertainty.
Essentially there are four steps in driving a foresight process:
- Key drivers
- Horizon Scanning
- Scenario Building
- Policy Gaming
Foresight typically begins by defining the purpose of the exercise, followed by a strategic analysis of key drivers – structural or systemic factors with a relatively predictable trajectory. These include, for example, geopolitical shifts, the climate-security nexus, technological disruption, energy transition, digitalization, or demographic ageing.
Once the key drivers are identified and the contours of relative certainty are mapped, the process moves to horizon scanning. This involves detecting “weak signals” – events or developments that currently have little impact or visibility but could signal major disruptions or turning points. These signals may hint at alternative futures and potential “game changers”, helping to illuminate the realm of uncertainty.
The next step is scenario building, typically resulting in a set of two to four narratives that explore both positive and negative trajectories. These are usually developed through a participatory process involving experts, practitioners, and decision-makers, guided by facilitators. Scenarios are primarily qualitative and help construct vivid, fictional yet plausible accounts of the future.
While scenario development can itself conclude the foresight process – especially if stakeholders take ownership of the narratives – it may also be extended through policy gaming. Also known as tabletop exercises, drills, or wargaming (particularly in military contexts), policy gaming involves simulation-based exercises that incorporate role-play and elements of chance. These exercises help decision-makers rehearse responses, test the robustness of scenarios, and assess institutional capacities to manage future challenges.